The chart above was created in the middle of August! Stacey Himes has been calling this savage downturn in goldshares as the rare chart pattern three peaks and a domed house for some time. He also gives target lows for the HUI index. It's fairly impressive stuff so far.
Here is his most recent post
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Close in time is not always close in price!
Gold and commodity markets have experienced some severe declines. We are just starting to see some posts that these bull markets may be ending. Although we are not contrarian for contrarians sake it seems likely that these musings are indeed indications of a impending sentiment low. The three peaks pattern has finally enterred the final leg of is wave to a measured move. Since we have not had a confirmed reversal we dont know if this fifth wave will extend. I could give you some potential minute wave counts. I think that would not be productive as its clear we are attempting to break down or capitulate. Momentum indicators are usually the best way to pick bottoms in a capitulation. I still stand by my prediction that 276 must be hit as a minimum. Now that the 307 area has failed I feel confident we are going to 276 and probably lower. There are several pivots that support a final low. ive mentioned the 263 area. theres another at 248 that has manifested itself from a fib expansion of the recent wave. In terms of cycle times the fnm/fre news this weekend is going to cause some fireworks monday. Its unclear whether is sell the news or not just yet. I know what I want to see, but the market will do what it wants. I will say this. If gold and silver continue the selloff next week and selloff hard then its time to buy. If they take off to the upside early next week, then we may have a bottom as well. either way we are about there in time , maybe not price. S.M. Himes
His comments on this chart formation can be found in recent posts on his blog site.
http://paintthecharts.blogspot.com/
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