How Venice Rigged the First, and Worst, Global Financial Crash

It appears that J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Barrick Gold have nothing on the bankers from Florence and Venice! Those Venetians knew all the moves well before anyone else! Now those guys were the masters of derivatives. Gallaher's article from thirteen years ago was early - but there's plenty to be learned from it. Looks like the 1340s has a lot more in common with the noughties than I thought.

"How Venice Rigged the First, and Worst, Global Financial Crash" by Paul Gallaher.

"Six hundred and fifty years ago came the climax of the worst financial collapse in history to date. The 1930s Great Depression was a mild and brief episode, compared to the bank crash of the 1340s, which decimated the human population."

http://www.schillerinstitute.org/fid_91-96/954_Gallagher_Venice_rig.html

It's long one but a good'un!

The coming boom in gold and silver stocks

The inflation scare has become a reality and it has the world's central banks afraid. Their only hope now is to inflate together - or face a relentless, slow death and the destruction of their economies. Inflation is on its way and its dynamic unstoppable. All the political mantras of the last fifty-sixty years are about to be ditched as the central banks begin printing money rather than just borrowing it. This is euphemistically known as "quantative easing".

The world's currencies will fall in value while gold, silver and PM stocks will rise, probably to astonishing values from where they stand now. Mining stocks are at their most bombed out levels for at least forty years. And this at a time when countries are having to nationalise or part nationalise their nations' banks, to save them from bankruptcy. The taxpayers are having to bail out irresponsible banks, insurance companies and motor manufacturers. The latter should have been making economic vehicles and improving the fuel efficiency of their cars. Instead we lived, and to some degree, are still living in the four-wheel-drive SUVS.

For gold and silver producers the high octane combination of lower fuel and other important input costs together with rising precious metal prices should spark a boom in PM stocks, the likes of which has not been witnessed for a very long time. Juniors will also thrive as they will become takeover targets by big miners looking for replacement ounces. The chance to pick up good explorers for a song will prove irresistable and bidding wars will likely emerge.

For gold, silver and related stocks time there has never been a better time to buy! Many Gold and silverbugs have been "all in" for some time. Whether the rise begins in earnest before the end of this year or early 2009 is surely academic.

Alex Wallenstein on Friday's take down of gold and silver

It's an interesting take, and there may be more than a grain of truth to it!
Why Gold Was 'Hacked' Friday- and How
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4396.html

Very bullish price action in RGLD

Royal Gold's price action suggests the next leg up is imminent. It's positive against a fall in gold. According the Cyclist from the forum "Gold's Action" the third week of April has been slated as the week in which the metals and their equities make a strong rise. He also thinks that this rise will last into early June. Others such as Goldrunner think that the HUI, the US gold bug index of unhedged equities, will almost treble this year! We'll see. But these respected posters have a history of being right and the fundamentals also back their analyses. This is also the year Presidential Cycle. Stocks has historically done well in at least the last 10 out of the last 12 US elections. That's another important reason for gold and silver stocks to rise.

The juniors have been in a bear market since 2005. They are now cheaper than they have EVER BEEN in this bull market! Some may go to the wall. Poor old Thistle Mining did not make it. But the others should make up for this in spades. Patagonia Gold could be a real sparkler over the next year. They may have THREE possible gold mines in addition to their resources in the Chabut, which may also see a mining ban lifted. Minerva Resources (MVA.L) is my hunch for the bigtime. They have a number of promising drilling results to be announced once they have been processed in the labs. I've increased my position in this one - as it is being given away at under 4p! They have exerienced, good management and great mining prospects.

Looking forward to the sparklers in the juniors this year. The gold complex should move up substantially into year's end.

Got Gold Report – Gold, Silver Continue to Confound Short Sellers

Here's an interesting report that, amongst other things, examines the reasons why juniors have been hammered over the last few months. I know that on the London's AIM several juniors' share prices have been slaughtered by redemption selling pressure by one or more hedge funds.

By Gene Arensberg
24 Feb 2008 at 05:56 PM GMT-05:00

"The vacuum of liquidity from the speculative mining and exploration stocks has been nothing short of brutally amazing over the past four months, indeed since the middle of last year. It is especially dramatic for thinly traded companies on less liquid markets such as in Canada, relative to the HUI (and the HUI hasn’t been doing all that great either compared to gold). Compared to the HUI the smaller, more speculative mining and exploration stocks have been murdered and that’s hard for some investors to take for very long given that the metals themselves have been on a tear. Compared to the metals, spec miners have been dismembered, ground up and fed to the pigs. It’s much worse than the plunge seen in 2003.

According to old-timers in the resource biz, this could possibly be one of the best buying opportunities of the Great Gold Bull in the making for those with the stomach for it, a longer time horizon and the high-risk capital to put to work ahead of the inevitable flood of liquidity back into the sector sometime in the next year or so."
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40713

Predictions for gold and silver for 2008

Throwing ball in the waves beyond Fort Lauderdale's Las Olas Beach reminded me of gold's action today - it's just treading water. My predictions for gold and silver in 2008 are as likely as anyone's to be right - or wrong. However, I'd be surprised if gold did not reach $1000 and silver $26 this year!

Happy New Year whether you are invested in the bull market in the precious metals or taking exams in the coming year. As a Chinese student wished me over Christmas - "Many luck with females!"

Now, where's that Hooters Bar?

Dog!

Housing, US Dollars, Gold, PPI & Inflation - $10000 gold and 500 to $1000 silver!

Some commentators think that there will be one more frightening dip for gold investors. However, they then say that gold and silver with related equities will rise strongly. Fund manager and chart technician, Frank Barbara, is even more bullish for the prospects for gold and silver. He thinks that in the next few years we are on our way to $10000 gold and $500 to $1000 silver! These figures are at th higher end for commentators. Barabara sees we are heading towards some "very trying times".
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/barbera.html

It's a great day for PMs and associated stocks!

The Rally Monkey!


The big Kahuna is being landed! Rally Time is here! What follows is some consolidation before higher highs.

There's a panic in asset backed securities!

Investors use this market to hedge against these assets. It looks as if the underlying asset values are collapsing, particularly recently. It's a shocking chart.

Here


This article helps explain that chart.

Here

Is it any wonder that a number of banks in the US and around the world are having to write off huge chunks of their net worth. It looks as if they are only just beginning this process! Merrill Lynch had to admit to having to write off over $8 billion dollars the other day. Is that just the tip of the iceberg for this and other US and European banks?

CDOs
Are these devices(derivatives) a clever way to disperse risk or are they as Warren Buffet has said, “financial weapons of mass destruction”,that are poorly understood and perilous boosters of credit? "The Economist" print edition 19/4 2007

Gold and silver will be the main beneficiaries here.

The Ecstasy of Gold from "The Good The Bad and the Ugly"

Aholebroke used the orchestral version of this on Gold Eagle's Gold Forum. However, on a day like today I don't mind stealing a good idea! Gold and silver are going great guns today. It's only a matter of time until the public wake up to the value present in PM stocks.