Tuesday, 14 August 2007

The Dow and Gold

The Dow's under pressure and it is dragging down the HUI and XAU. The two have been unusually correlated with the Dow since 2003. The "flight to safety" has still not begun and the funds are still liquidating gold and silverstocks. The rule of thumb seems to be "by whatever the Dow falls the HUI must double it. This rule is not reversed when the Dow goes higher!

However, surely the divergence of the HUI with the Dow is not that far off. The technical chartist David Petch thinks that the HUI has been bottoming out since the end of July. I like his analysis and think that the rise in the HUI will chime with seasonal strength expected over the next couple of weeks.

For goldbugs the last few months have been like water torture!

This is what seasonal strength looks like and when you can expect it.

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About Me

I teach Film, Media and English Lit.